Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OP prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.985305 1.201148 1.431657 1.694078 1.982576 2.288277 2.634929
2024-10-27 0.755512 1.058295 1.405499 1.824437 2.308324 2.842711 3.470807
2024-11-03 0.641519 0.991917 1.413587 1.941311 2.568892 3.278238 4.128205
2024-11-10 0.553465 0.939937 1.425997 2.053811 2.818646 3.699313 4.770514
2024-11-17 0.488051 0.902750 1.444935 2.163966 3.057132 4.100641 5.384626
2024-11-24 0.410982 0.836816 1.417487 2.208875 3.211252 4.399128 5.877000
2024-12-01 0.335163 0.759807 1.365654 2.214721 3.311060 4.628247 6.284275
2024-12-08 0.252604 0.657377 1.267784 2.151337 3.317004 4.738592 6.546054
2024-12-15 0.186375 0.567426 1.177309 2.089350 3.317982 4.837729 6.790262
2024-12-22 0.139661 0.500607 1.112950 2.056495 3.351296 4.972638 7.074288
2024-12-29 0.113842 0.468118 1.097565 2.089534 3.469274 5.212200 7.485683
2025-01-05 0.088254 0.428897 1.067080 2.097810 3.552168 5.406280 7.840554
2025-01-12 0.059657 0.374444 1.010000 2.070415 3.594446 5.559958 8.161416
2025-01-19 0.056209 0.385668 1.067242 2.215967 3.876146 6.024649 8.875116
2025-01-26 0.051673 0.392057 1.115138 2.346947 4.137657 6.463448 9.556805
2025-02-02 0.046972 0.396455 1.159154 2.472343 4.392356 6.894854 10.231273
2025-02-09 0.042518 0.400101 1.201342 2.594970 4.643674 7.322713 10.902562
2025-02-16 0.032650 0.380136 1.197436 2.644858 4.792929 7.618003 11.407696
2025-02-23 0.021842 0.348295 1.167338 2.651356 4.879789 7.831128 11.808952
2025-03-02 0.010355 0.296856 1.091849 2.580919 4.854369 7.894737 12.019282
2025-03-09 0.003588 0.251007 1.020388 2.511951 4.827367 7.953576 12.221446
2025-03-16 0.000822 0.218084 0.971013 2.475361 4.843743 8.067018 12.490383
2025-03-23 0.000168 0.205028 0.965381 2.512156 4.967400 8.324232 12.944613